Uprising against Mnangagwa's third term bid could put SA under pressure

Potential political instability posed by calls in Zimbabwe for President Emmerson Mnangagwa to step down from within his governing Zanu-PF could present challenges for South Africa, which has pressing economic challenges.

Two major socioeconomic problems in South Africa, namely unemployment and poverty, are relatively worse in Zimbabwe. As such, Zimbabweans who find the going tough at home see South Africa as a viable destination and land of opportunity.

Not even recent reports from the department of home affairs that deportations from South Africa have more than tripled since 2020/2021 can deter suffering Zimbabweans.

“Why should I stay home when it’s clear 2025 and beyond will be a waste for me? I would rather go back to South Africa and take up menial jobs,” said Sothini Ncube, a vendor on the streets of Bulawayo, the second largest city.

Ncube holds an honours degree in psychology but job opportunities in Zimbabwe are hard to come by. He's also grown frustrated that basic amenities are lacking and there’s no government effort towards poverty alleviation.

“There are no pain killers in major hospitals in Zimbabwe. I would rather risk insults in South Africa but at least get some treatment when I fall sick. We are [stuck] between a rock and a hard place. South Africa should brace as usual for our influx,” he added.

In February South Africa announced a sweeping nationwide operation to clamp down on illegal immigrants, but with uncertainty for many Zimbabweans growing due to political bickering in the governing party, many could be considering heading to South Africa.

Stevenson Dlamini, an economist from Zimbabwe, said South Africa should be concerned about the political situation up north because it could lead to a strain on its public services and infrastructure.

“South Africa has on numerous occasions struggled with unregulated Zimbabwean economic and political refugees. Not long ago [2023] a South African doctor [Limpopo health MEC, now premier Phophi Ramathuba] despite diplomatic pressure later, in a raw manner spoke the language of ordinary South Africans. She was not politically correct but she exposed what a political failure in Zimbabwe reflected on South Africa,” he said.

South Africa is Zimbabwe’s biggest trade partner and Zimbabwe is South Africa's gateway to Africa. Therefore, a politically insecure Zimbabwe is bad for business, according to Dlamini.

Fissures inside Zanu-PF developed at last year’s October conference in Bulawayo when a section aligned to Mnangagwa passed a motion to extend his term.

They proposed a two-way strategy; to extend his term which ends in 2028 by two years or to change the constitution to allow him a third term that will see him stay on until 2034.

Mnangagwa insists he won’t stay beyond his constitutional term. But as the party’s most senior member, the first secretary, he has not stopped those calling for constitutional change.

That’s why Blessed Geza, who at the time was a member of Zanu-PF’s central committee, decided to be the face of those resisting Mnangagwa’s extension.

Geza boldly mentioned people he called “the looting mafia and political criminals aiding Mnangagwa to butcher the constitution for their selfish ends”.

Geza was then fired from the party and placed on the police's wanted list. He is in hiding but calling on Zimbabweans to mount resistance through protests.

Geza wants Mnangagwa to be replaced by his deputy Constantino Chiwenga, the protagonist of the November 2017 coup, who has not uttered a word.

Party spokesperson Christopher Mutsvangwa,in an interview with Dug Up, a Zimbabwean investigative outfit, accused Chiwenga of harbouring presidential ambitions. He also referred to Chiwenga as uneducated and unelectable for the presidency.

Mnangagwa moved with speed to change top bosses in the country’s security sector before the March demonstrations viewed as a failed coup attempt within Zanu-PF.

Mutsvangwa confirmed there were “dramatic changes in the structure of our state apparatus” to avoid an unconstitutional change of government.

“They [security sector] proved they are not a joystick for political day dreamers. Ours is not akin to any postcolonial armies that can be commanded from London or from Paris to go to the state house and remove leaders. It does not work like that with our army,” he said.

In January Mnangagwa retired Zimbabwe Republic Police (ZRP) commissioner Gen Godwin Matanga, replacing him with Stephen Mutamba.

In the same month he retired director-general Isaac Moyo from the spy agency, Central Intelligence Organisation (CIO), and in came Fulton Mangwanya.

But the biggest change came a week before the March 31 planned protests to remove the president from power.

Zimbabwe National Army (ZNA) commander Lt-Gen Anselem Sanyatwe, 69, was retired from the army to become minister of sport, arts and culture.

His replacement was Maj-Gen Emmanuel Matatu, 72.

The new look ZRP, ZNA and CIO are near complete overhauls compared with when vice-president Chiwenga led the putsch that removed Robert Mugabe in November 2017, ushering in Mnangagwa’s regime.

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