Much has been said about the apparent rise in e-commerce and the digital economy during the Covid-19 crisis. But how much of that will still be a reality as more of the economy opens up?
Social-distancing rules have forced consumers to adopt technology in a way few could have imagined before President Cyril Ramaphosa called the first “family meeting” in March, ushering in a lockdown that is now in its sixth month.
While Matthew Leighton from e-commerce business OneDayOnly.co.za suggests that the experience offered by tasting the convenience of shopping online may cause behaviour to change permanently, for some e-commerce it has merely been a substitution for physical shopping. As soon as mall doors opened, shoppers returned to their pre-Covid behaviour.
The evidence nevertheless suggests that for most the shift to digital is here to stay.
According to new data from OneDayOnly, the average online basket size or spend has surpassed level five and four averages — with customers currently spending almost R1,000 per order, up from about R600 in February and March, and about R800 from April to July.
E-commerce will probably continue to grow beyond Covid-19. By some estimates, online retail, which stood at 1.4%, or R14bn of total retail sales in 2019, may have already reached 5% with the possibility of touching 10% by the end of 2020. In the UK, where online retail comprises 20% of the total, this is expected to double to 40%.
The question for the local economy is whether growth online will be enough to offset the real-world devastation seen overall in retail due to the crisis.
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