Looking back at 2024, NVest Securities MD Liam Graham said the first half was challenged by uncertain times, which is bad for business.
But the May election and establishment of the Government of National Unity evaporated most of that, he added.
“GNU successes aside, there's plenty of other good news filtering through. Eskom seems to have sorted out many problems, electricity availability is high and load-shedding has stopped, for now anyway.
"Transnet is in the spotlight with its efforts to get rail volumes back up."
From earlier highs of 270m tons to the current 150m tons, the new target is 170 to 190m tons, he said.
Reliable national power and transport are key areas for any economy.
“Along with the rate cut, oil and food prices have dropped. The ‘two pot system’, launched in September, gives consumers access to more cash.
"The retail sector is flying, the financial sector has thrived and there are several other good news signs.
“The Boxer IPO (initial public offering), spun out of Pick n Pay, was one of the most exciting I have witnessed.
"It is a fantastic story, playing into the lower end of the consumer market. Sun International, Avtech and Lewis have also done well, as have quite a few others.
“Analysts are starting to forecast 2% GDP growth for 2026, growth we haven’t seen for years.”
US president-elect Donald Trump’s looming second term had created international uncertainty “but we must remember that in his first effort the market was up 40%. Plus he has some really good people around him.
“A lot of what he is doing, and he isn’t in office yet, will be positive for the US market, and other countries will have to negotiate around it.
"Trump will probably cut taxes, deregulate, increase fiscal spending, and that could put pressure on other countries, including SA.”
As a Christmas present to investors Graham gave two stock picks.
“Number one is Pick n Pay, which has struggled, but the sale of Boxer has given it a rock solid balance sheet. Number two is a company that everyone seems to love to hate, and that is Sasol.”
East London-based NVest Securities is a leading investment management and stockbroking firm, offering a broad range of local and offshore investment portfolios tailored for individual clients.
It is a JSE member and part of the NVest Financial Holdings Group.
“Obviously there are no guarantees when it comes to investing, and politics can change the financial picture very quickly," Graham said.
"That said, our company is cautiously bullish for 2025. We'll keep on top of any developments in the local and international business scene.”
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