A major point of discussion among other analysts and economists this past week was the likely impact of the expected El Niño on South Africa’s agriculture and consumer food price inflation in 2027.
The concerns are understandable, as the latest weather forecasts continue to signal that we are heading towards a severe El Niño. Its arrival will coincide with South Africa’s 2026-27 summer crop season, which starts in mid-October.
But looking at the likely impact of this El Niño on crop production -- meaning on food prices a bit later -- there are two major factors.
First, SA has benefited from a prolonged La Niña, which has supported the agricultural sector over the past few years.
Importantly, the rainfall periods have been much longer than the typical periods. For example, in the 2024-25 season, the summer rains continued through April 2025. They normally end in March.
In the 2025-26 season, the rain continued through to May, which is far longer than the typical rainfall cycles that end in March. Ordinarily, such longer rainfall periods would raise concerns about crop quality.
But in the areas that harvested the 2025-26 crops, we haven’t seen many quality issues. In fact, the Crop Estimates Committee’s latest projections were revised higher and still point to a record summer crop harvest for 2025-26.
The longer rainfall season benefited the country by improving soil moisture and the water table ahead of the 2026-27 summer crop season. When the planting period starts in October 2026, farmers across SA will begin with better-than-normal soil moisture than usual.
This means there will likely be sufficient soil moisture to support seed germination and crop development across SA, even as El Niño brings below-normal rainfall.
Importantly, even below-normal levels may still support the crops, given the raised soil moisture. That said, the timing of the rain is what will matter most for crop development.
In the irrigation areas, the La Niña rains over the past few years have improved dam water levels and the overall water table. This will assist with fruits and vegetables, as all these are planted under irrigation.
In the case of field crops, roughly 20% of SA crops are under irrigation, with the rest rain-fed, so depending mostly on available soil moisture and the timing of showers in the 2026-27 season.
For livestock, the grazing veld across SA is in a fair condition after the longer rainy periods in 2025-26.
The sector will enter next summer with better grazing veld, and the improved water table will support pastures.
The second key factor is that SA has just its largest-ever summer grain and oilseed crop. The Crop Estimates Committee places the 2025-26 summer crop at a record 21.49 million tonnes, 5% up on last year.
Notably, among the major grains, the maize crop is up 4%, and is the largest harvest on record. This adds to already large carryover stocks from the previous season.
This puts SA in an excellent position heading into next year.
It is understandable that people worry about El Niño, but forecasts of food price inflation may miss some of these fundamental shapers of the season ahead.
Indeed, the drought is not ideal and may impose costs on farmers, but we can’t view it the same way as previous droughts.
• Wandile Sihlobo is the Presidential Envoy on Agriculture and Land. He is also the chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, and a senior research fellow in the Department of Agricultural Economics at Stellenbosch University.
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