0 of 3
The oceans and mountains of the Eastern Cape could lessen the impact of the looming El Niño summer, the SA Weather Service has suggested.
Earlier in May, the UN’s World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) updated its forecast saying it was 80% sure that by September the stubborn three-year La Niña (little girl) would have given way to El Niño (little boy).
This will mean heat and drought, not just locally, but for many parts of the globe, said the WMO, which worried that, when human-induced warming is factored in, there could be a record-smashing “spike” in global heating.
However, SAWS scientist Cobus Olivier told Off Track that the ocean off the Eastern Cape and the “influence” of the escarpment could reduce the typical effects of El Niño.
He said: “If an El Niño does occur, however, we expect its usual effects over the summer rainfall areas [mostly the north eastern parts of SA] which is typically drier and warmer summer months.
“With regards to the Eastern Cape, its effects can be classified as similar [drier and warmer months] during summer, however, due to the Eastern Cape’s location on the coast and the influence of the escarpment, El Nino’s ‘typical’ effects are not as common as they are in the North East.”
Before that, however, the SAWS says the region is in for a bit of a waiting game to see what happens after the “spring [autumn] barrier” period where the computer models are “somewhat inaccurate”.
The SAWS will wait until July and August before “assigning any confidence to an Enso prediction for summer”.
“At this stage it would be prudent to wait for a more confident forecast from the global models before looking into more detail for a specific area like the Eastern Cape.
“I would suggest waiting for our forecasts in August for any further discussion on Enso’s impact on local areas in South Africa.”
DispatchLIVE
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.