The Eastern Cape is set to be a key player in the ANC’s national succession debate, with party insiders saying a team lobbying support for deputy president Paul Mashatile is wooing ANC chair Oscar Mabuyane to take his place as the party’s deputy president.
Party insiders serving on the national executive committee, provincial executive and at a regional level told the Dispatch that talks were under way to possibly include former provincial treasurer Babalo Madikizela as the next treasurer-general and small business minister Stella Ndabeni as a member of the party’s powerful top seven leaders.
The ANC is yet to formally open its succession race.
Mashatile is expected to run for the party’s presidency to take over from president Cyril Ramaphosa, whose term ends in 2027.
He is the front-runner, with secretary-general Fikile Mbalula said to be planning to challenge for the race.
But one NEC member cautioned that if Mbalula decided to run as deputy president, the contest would be dead. “Who can contest that? A lot of dreams would go.”
Mbalula’s deputy, Nomvula Mokonyane, recently told the Sunday Times that she might also run for president.
Insiders said Mashatile’s frequent visits to the province recently were partly because of his moves to woo the province.
Mashatile has undertaken several trips to the province this year, to address the special regional general meeting preparing for the ANC’s national general council.
Three NEC members and an ANCYL national leader confirmed they knew about Mabuyane again running for deputy president.
At the last conference, Mabuyane, who was Ramaphosa’s favourite, lost out to Mashatile for the position.
An ANC Eastern Cape provincial executive committee member, who spoke on condition anonymity, confirmed Mashatile was courting the province to play a significant role in his ambitions to become the party’s number one, and later the country’s president.
He said party structures in the province had not yet structurally engaged on the matter, though lobbying for Mashatile was quietly and clandestinely taking place.
“It means that either the generation of the ex-ANC Youth League president Malusi Gigaba could constitute the majority in the incoming NEC or the current generation of Fikile [Mbalula] could be the majority stakeholder,” the PEC member said..
Shifting to provincial dynamics, he added: “Remember, even in this province, there is a serious contest on who must ascend to the position of chairmanship.”
While there are talks that there is a lobby group advocating for no contest in the province, pushing for a unified approach, the PEC member said: “There is no way that there will be no contest here.”
Asked about rumours of a lobby group consisting of NEC and PEC members advocating for no contest, another PEC member confirmed the debate.
“It is, however, a silent debate, something hidden, but equally, I can tell you, there is going to be a contest here.”
Another PEC member confirmed the national lobby group was mostly consisting of people from the Eastern Cape, quietly lobbying for a no contest between Mbalula and Mashatile.
“In Chris Hani region, it’s not like they don’t see Mabuyane’s weaknesses — they do, but because he is one of their own, they rally behind him."
“There is the possibility that Fikile will end up being a deputy president. If that happens, the province will have to be strategic in terms of approaching the national discussion.”
He said that to get positions in the top seven national leadership “you can only do that when you have first consolidated the province”.
“A big problem we have here is that we have an emerging tendency I regard as regionalism.
“You will find the Alfred Nzo region picking Madikizela because he is one of their own, not his capacity, and OR Tambo region picking [ANC provincial secretary Lulama] Ngcukayitobi because he is from there.
“In Chris Hani region, it’s not like they don’t see Mabuyane’s weaknesses — they do, but because he is one of their own, they rally behind him. .
“You are likely to have three names from the province that will feature nationally. That is the current sitting chairperson [Mabuyane], Madikizela and the OR Tambo region’s candidate for national, comrade Stella Ndabeni. That alone divides the province.”
An NEC member from the province warned that while Mabuyane was being touted as a deputy president contender, it was not clear-cut that he would get province-wide support, and his first hurdle would be to win a third term against Ngcukayitobi.
“I don’t think it’s something that they should take for granted.
“If he gets the third term, how will he unite the province?”
Another NEC member confirmed he was part of a team trying to unite factions aligned to Mabuyane or Ngcukayitobi for a united Eastern Cape ahead of the national conference.
He said several EC NEC members, whose names are known to the Dispatch, were part of the team.
Andile Lungisa, who is part of the team, confirmed there were attempts by some to unite provincial factions.
“We will continue engaging internally so Oscar and Ngcukayitobi, including structures of the ANC, must maintain the unity the province enjoys,” he said.
Asked if he was aware of the push to support Mashatile and for him to be deputy president, Mabuyane said: “Last [time] branches nominated me to stand for the DP position. At the right time, I will comment.”
Ndabeni refused to comment about politics on Friday, while Madikizela said it was too early to comment.
Mashatile’s spokesperson, Keith Khoza, could not be reached for comment.
Daily Dispatch
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