Cyril Ramaphosa remains one of the most skilful politicians in the ANC, analysts say, despite party turmoil. His ability to manage the government of national unity (GNU) and counter critics has kept him firmly in power, at least for now.
Leadership decisions are heavily influenced by party power brokers.
“He survived quite a few assaults and he’s countering the GNU critics quite consistently,” says Prof Susan Booysen. “Playing the renewal cards very clearly as if the fact that the ANC has dipped below 50% has not happened under his rule — that was one we’ve totally overlooked — and how he’s made the coalition and GNU as if this is a great achievement.”
Prof Bongani Ngqulunga says Ramaphosa has often been underestimated: “He’s a lot more skilful politician than we sometimes give him credit for. It is not in the interest of the contenders, those who want to succeed him, to see him leave right now. I don’t think we have someone powerful enough in the ANC to cobble together a coalition that could make that person [president].”
Ngqulunga has observed how party figures are positioning themselves around Ramaphosa. “For example, Mbalula is closely aligning himself to the president in a sense that if I’m elected I’ll be a continuity candidate, so to speak. They are not sure if he goes now, they will be able to do that.”
Despite losing an outright majority, Booysen says ANC policies continue to be implemented in the GNU: “Yes, they have been taken to court on a few cases or forced to reconsider how they pass a budget. They were pushed into convening an extraordinary lekgotla meeting with GNU partners, but life is very easy for the ANC in the coalition.”
Ngqulunga warns that Ramaphosa’s long-term fate will hinge on the next local government elections: “[Former president Jacob] Zuma started losing power in the ANC after the local government elections in 2016. When you lose votes, powerful party figures lose jobs.”
Looking ahead, the analysts agree the ANC is far from collapse but faces serious challenges. Ngqulunga predicts it may evolve into a smaller, coalition-dependent party, while Booysen says: “It needs serious medical attention. But it is not dying — it is still competing strongly and remains the country’s dominant party.”
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