Friday marks the beginning of a very long political battle. ANC secretary-general Ace Magashule is making his second appearance in the Bloemfontein magistrate’s court on charges linked to a R255m asbestos contract signed during his tenure as Free State premier. He is facing 21 charges of corruption and fraud, including theft and money laundering.
While the actual court proceedings are expected to be quite mundane and brief, the real action is going to be outside. What happens legally doesn’t really matter — these court cases can take forever to come to a conclusion. It is the politics that is going to have a more immediate effect on the future of the ANC and the country.
As in November 2020, so-called supporters of Magashule will gather outside the court precinct. Some might not know why they are there (as we saw last time), despite holding placards and chanting his name. There have been reports of such supporters already congregating in Bloemfontein.
The secretary-general will come out flanked by some fellow ANC national executive committee (NEC) members aligned to the so-called “radical economic transformation” faction, and Jacob Zuma allies the Umkhonto we Sizwe Military Veterans, and he will in all likelihood address the crowd.
Magashule’s appearance comes a little less than a week after the NEC, the ANC’s highest decision-making body between conferences, adopted guidelines for dealing with members and leaders facing charges in court for corruption and allegations of wrongdoing. They reaffirmed that those facing corruption charges should voluntarily step down from positions in the party and the government. If they refuse to do so, the party can suspend them.
As stated in rule 25.70 of the ANC constitution: “Where a public representative, office-bearer or member has been indicted to appear in a court of law on any charge, the secretary-general or provincial secretary, acting on the authority of the NEC, the NWC [national working committee], the PEC [provincial executive committee] or the PWC [provincial working committee], if satisfied that the temporary suspension of such public representative, office-bearer or member would be in the best interest of the organisation, may suspend such public representative, elected office-bearer or member and impose terms and conditions to regulate their participation and conduct during the suspension.”
This is where the guidelines become important, because it is quite obvious that the party cannot expect Magashule, as secretary-general, to suspend himself. The guidelines are meant to be a framework that guides how the ANC executes issues of stepping aside. The NWC has now been mandated to finalise the guidelines in March. This gives Magashule a bit of breathing space, for at least another month.
So what does he tell his supporters on Friday after his second appearance in court? During his first appearance he made it clear he would not step down, and that no-one can remove him except the branches of the ANC — through a special conference. But that is not what the guidelines say.
What we can expect from Magashule on Friday is defiance. This is the same man who made it clear he saw no problem with Zuma, the former president, defying the Constitutional Court, the highest court in land. So Magashule will have no problem defying the governing party. He doesn’t have anything else — he needs to hold on to his job as secretary-general, arguably one of the most powerful positions in the ANC, which gives him access to and influence over the party’s structures and branches.
As speculation continues to grow that Magashule has his eye on the presidency, he will need his position in the ANC to continue mobilising support. If he is no longer ANC secretary-general, it cuts him off at the knees.
When former president Thabo Mbeki fired Zuma as deputy president of SA in 2005 Zuma remained deputy president of the ANC, which allowed him to traverse the country and mobilise support, which won him the presidency at the ANC’s watershed Polokwane conference in 2007.
What does Magashule have if you take away this access? It’s not as if he has the masses on his side at this stage. Obviously Magashule is not going to step aside. He will fight to the bitter end.
It is quite clear that the ANC would prefer to have its members and leaders step down voluntarily, “in the interest of protecting and enhancing the integrity and credibility of the organisation”, as stated by the president in his closing remarks to the NEC meeting last weekend, so that it is not forced to take on the burden of suspending anyone, let alone its secretary-general.
But Magashule in all likelihood is going to force Ramaphosa and the NEC to suspend him. Whether this happens is another story. As much as the NEC may lean towards Ramaphosa, there are many with “smallanyana” skeletons on both sides of the factional divide.
If Magashule goes, the precedent will be set. Then anyone can go — even the president.
• Quintal is political editor of Business Day.
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.