At the tail-end of Covid-19, closing schools is not an option

Will you fall at the final hurdle?

At the height of the pandemic and in near total isolation, our small group of about 10 childhood friends held a weekly Zoom meeting to connect, encourage and share concerns. We would take turns to present a perspective on the enveloping crisis. A doctor friend spoke about lessons from the history of pandemics and a coach about drawing on our inner resources, that type of thing. At one of those sessions, to underline the realness of the Covid-19 crisis, I made the point that by the end of the year one of us could be gone. Ours was an older group (50s and early 60s), with a fair spread of comorbidities and a few working in health professions. By the end of the year, one of the most gifted members of our small group was gone, succumbing to Covid-19. It was heartbreaking, but predictable, given the deadliness of this viral pandemic.

There is a good chance you or someone you know will fall at the final hurdle, just as people are starting to get their vaccine jabs. One way to gauge the seriousness of our state now is to pay attention to the messages being sent this week by well-placed schools and tertiary institutions. On Monday, my own university shared “a strong warning” from an expert in epidemiological modelling about a sustained increase in infections countrywide. This quote by Prof Juliet Pullam got me worried:

“A new wave is officially declared when the seven-day moving average of the case incidence reaches 30% of the previous wave. We are not quite there yet, but we are rapidly approaching that threshold” (emphasis in the original).

The university then shared this frightening news that “by May 12, the Western Cape had seen a 35% increase in new cases of Covid-19 infections compared to the previous seven-day period” and that in the Cape winelands that number was 40%. In the small university town of Stellenbosch, the increase was a staggering 80%. This is serious stuff and as Pullam warned, unlike in the early days of the pandemic, “the younger age groups are starting to pop (15 to 25)”. If such expert announcements do not pluck you out of complacency, nothing will.

Children need physical development in the outdoors as much as the intellectual stimulation of the classroom. The return to some sense of normality is good for the emotional, spiritual and mental health of children, as well as teachers

One of the best approaches to the crisis comes from a top South African school which this week told parents of its focus on balancing the health risks with the academic, social and emotional wellbeing of its pupils. This school scrutinises the infection trends, consults medical advisers and applies common sense in bold letters: “Keeping the schools open and safe is our priority.”

I see other schools are pressing the minister of basic education, Angie Motshekga, to allow a return to sports. This is completely understandable. Children need physical development in the outdoors as much as the intellectual stimulation of the classroom. The return to some sense of normality is good for the emotional, spiritual and mental health of children, as well as teachers.

But do you really want to experience loss at this final hurdle? The most recent data show that between March 2020 and February 2021 3,032 teachers died, of which 1,678 (so-called “excess deaths”) were Covid-19 related; in other words, a 124% increase due to the virus (National Income Dynamics Study, May 2021). Pupils are testing positive across schools and in sports teams.

What should schools do as we hurtle towards a third wave? I draw on the excellent example of the school mentioned earlier. Increase vigilance. Wear masks. Require class bubbles. Screen children and teachers. Get tested. Stay at home if you have symptoms. One thing is clear, and it is this: closing schools is not an option at this stage in the pandemic. We have to learn how to live smartly with the virus at the tail-end of this pandemic.

That said, it is worth remembering that death is not the only danger lurking in the air; so are infections and, for some, debilitating illness with possible long-term health consequences.

We are almost there. True, the rollout of the vaccines is maddeningly slow. Many of us who were registered are still waiting for the SMS invitation to become vaccinated. In the meantime, others have crossed the border to places such as Namibia and Zimbabwe, where vaccination rates are significantly higher than in SA, despite our comparative advantage in science expertise and economic wealth.

It would truly be a wasted sacrifice if the hardship you have endured since early 2020 comes to naught and you end up infected, on a ventilator or dead.