The war in Iran is far away but the effect on Africa is immediate and grave.
The whole world has to reckon with the disruptions to energy, technology and food chains/supplies but for Africa, the consequences may be the most severe.
This is because the continent has so little social provision and already faces severe resource challenges.
Nonetheless, ironically, the Iran war may also offer the continent some hope.
It may offer a new chance because it forces Africa to think differently about its Just Energy Transition (Jet) funding models and frameworks.
The conflict is exposing a path for us towards insulating ourselves from future energy shocks and other external threats to our economies and survival. We need to take it.
The geopolitical impact has been profound. The escalation of the regional conflict into a global energy strategic chokehold has seen the Strait of Hormuz closed — the first time this has occurred since the 1970s.
The global economic fallout of this blockade is inevitably huge: Bloomberg estimates that 4.5% of the total value of global containerised trade passed through the Strait of Hormuz before the conflict.
This trade accounted for an estimated 20% of the world’s seaborne oil and liquefied natural gas.
The result is oil price hikes not seen since the 1980 Iranian Revolution, with Brent crude oil reaching an unprecedented peak of $126 (R2,100) per barrel in March 2026.
This heightened volatility reflects a fundamental shift in market supply and demand value chains.
A Reuters report projected that by the end of the year, the demand for oil will have outpaced supply by an average of 750,000 barrels.
The impact on the African continent has been far-reaching, most visible in the compounding threats to energy and food security
A report published earlier in April by the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group estimated that nine-million barrels per day of crude supply had been effectively wiped out from the markets.
As the war continues to disrupt vital global supply chains, the situation becomes increasingly precarious.
The disruption spans a wide range of critical sectors, impacting on everything from agricultural inputs such as fertiliser to the raw materials essential for high-tech manufacturing, construction and the plastics industry.
The impact on the African continent has been far-reaching, most visible in the compounding threats to energy and food security.
Kenya, Ethiopia and Zambia have all reported oil shortages, with Kenya implementing administrative price freezes; Ethiopia instituting the strict prioritisation of oil supplies for essential vehicles, and Zambia imposing large-scale tax suspensions to compensate for increased prices.
This is particularly concerning in light of the fact that Africa cannot meet its own oil needs: Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, only has capacity to meet 33% of Africa’s demand.
Beyond the immediate energy crunch, Africa faces an impending food security crisis.
The World Food Programme (WFP) 2026 Global Outlook estimates that 318 million people are now at risk of being food insecure, with the Southern African Development Community region accounting for an estimated 34% to 42% of the at-risk population.
This crisis continues to be worsened by cuts in aid: the WFP’s operational budget has declined by 32% from 2025.
The weakening of such safety nets for Africa has created a critical threshold of vulnerability, demanding urgent state responses.
Hence the urgent need for Africa to advance an inclusive green industrial policy agenda that addresses continental needs for economic and climate security — to offer a vital buffer against global market volatility.
This means taking actionable action towards leveraging the Africa Continental Free Trade Area, targeting the development of emerging green industries, innovation with a focus on skills development, and infrastructural development.
It means facilitating the continent’s transition towards affordable and clean energy, while speaking to the imperatives of leveraging regional value chains, adherence to sustainable development goals and decent work.
For SA, this necessitates a strategic recalibration of exploration investment funding, in alignment with other Brics+ countries, by leveraging and bridging the gap between multilateral development banks and domestic finance institutions to facilitate the flow of supply of capital and urgent actionable climate projects, safeguard Jet objectives, and empower developing economies.
SA’s exploration investment funding is at a historic low —estimated at 0.8-0.9% of the GDP — a stark contrast from the 5% benchmark observed in the early 2000s.
Addressing this deficit will be essential in catalysing domestic renewable energy innovation, enhancing energy security, and promoting economic growth and the much-needed democratisation of energy sources.
Lwanda Maqwelane, Researcher in the Knowledge Economy & Scientific Advancement, Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflections
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